2024 Outlook

I guess I'll follow suit with one of these

Its that time of year again. Everyone with a platform puts on the prognostication hat and starts making guesses into the next year.

To be perfectly honest, if you asked us 165 posts ago if we would have multiple years of guesses published here, I wouldn’t have believed it.

But here we are. I appreciate each of you.

If you missed the 2022 article, check it here:

How’d our guesses turn out?

• Bounce for stocks in 2023? Yes

• Volatility? Yes

• Dollar-cost average your purchases? Yes

• Inflation dropping followed by equity rally? Yes

• Strong finish to end of year? Yes

• Time to dollar cost average into crypto? Yes

• Crypto performance correlated with other high beta assets? Yes

• Home Prices down? No.

• Student loan payment freeze to continue if forgiveness struck down? No

• Unemployment up? No

Overall not bad.

2023 saw some big moves down and opportunities to accumulate -

BTC was rangebound giving a long time to accumulate, then moved up big near year-end with other risk-on assets.

Shockingly, national home price index was up pretty strong over the year - although the increases look to be peaking again.

We prefer labor participation to unemployment since it captures everyone - the trend has been down for a decade, but continues to increase off lockdown lows.

I’ll keep this post more direct since there is nothing worse than ambiguous guesses that can be ‘right either way’.

What happens in 2024?